A BRIEF HISTORY

Cycletrend -  A stock market Timing service devoted to the study of Cycles.

Cycletrend has studied  all cycles from the 60 year K-wave down to three week trading cycles and  provided market direction and potential turning points to institutions since 1971. During this time the founder and author, Jim Tillman, has been quoted in U. S. A. Today, The Wall Street Transcript, Financial Magazines, The Cycles Foundation and Regional newspapers about the long and short term market outlook.  He has also appeared on the original Financial News Network  (FNN) and given speeches at professional seminars such as Computrac and the MTA (Market Technicians Association).

Jim Tillman became intrigued with charts and technical analysis in collage at Clemson A&M and went to work as a broker for Courts & co. in Atlanta Ga. in the early '60s just in time for the "U.S.Steel price freeze" bear market of 1961-62. To learn more about the markets he began to study old masters such as H.M.Gartley for relative strength and group analysis, Joe Granville's On Balance Volume, R.N. Elliott for patterns, moving average methods of Curtiss Dahl and finally cycles for anticipation of turns and timing. It began to pull all these methods together when J.M. Hurst wrote "The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing" about cycles. This brought in the element of time and explained how patterns could evolve from the combination of cycles. It explained how sentiment could be so bullish at tops and bearish at lows and how momentum oscillators are "reading" cycle momentum. It explained how Centered moving averages are actually tracking the cycles allowing price objectives to be determined and have repeating cycles that are recognized as Elliott Wave patterns. Almost all technical indicator roots can be traced to cycles which is why CYCLETREND devotes almost all their analysis to methods that monitor cycles.

One of the things that Cycletrend does that is unique is to project the cycles into the future to give a roadmap of possible direction and pattern the major market averages may take. Either these suggest a pattern from the past that may be repeated or it can create an entire new pattern not seen before. One example was after the crash of 1987 when the cycle pattern suggested a new high not a continuation of the bear market as in 1929 that everyone was focused on.

In their long history, some of the most memorable forecast include:

1) "THE BEAR IS GONE" headline in October, 1974 (the very start of this bull market).

2) Began writing in 1977 about the K-Wave Bull market of the 1980s' would begin between 1981 and 1983.

3) Forecast a major bull market in Bonds in early 1982.

4) Went bullish the Stock market (again) October 19, 1987. In FNN interview (Mar 1988) predicted new highs still ahead into 1989-90.

5) June 1990 - with the DJIA at 3000, on the Ira Epstein TV show in Chicago predicted possible DJI 2200 level in the next six months (low 2353 by October 10, 1990).

Here is the record according to Timer Digest from that period to now.

TIMER DIGEST rankings:

             1990 - #3 Bond timer, # 2 for two years, in top 10 stock market timers.

             1991 - Ranked in top 5 Bond timers thru May.

             1992 - Ranked in top 10 for stock market 3 and 6 month periods.

             1993 - Ranked in top 5 for stock market (3/18-6/18)

             1994 - Ranked in top 5 as Gold timer for year, # 4 gold timer for 2 years.

             1995 - Thru April - in top 5 gold timers for 1 year, in  top 5 stock market timers (10/94- 1/09/95)

             1996 - Ranked #2 of bond timers in Timer Digest thru July 15.

             1997 - Received award from Market Technicians Association for achievements in Cycle/Wave analysis. - Ranked #2 Bond timer for the last two years. - Included in book 'TECHNICALLY SPEAKING' by Chris Wilkinson of 16 top analyst.

           

"Cycle analysis allows one to invest according to the time period that best fits your nature" says Jim Tillman"

Definition of cyclical terms:

HARMONICITY - Refers to cyclical wave periods related by small whole numbers. Generally by the ratio of 2 or 3. i.e. 10, 20, 40, 80 or 10, 30, 90 etc.

SUMMATION - The act of summing the cycles. A model with several individual cycles repeated into the future can be summarized at any vertical point in the future to find the combined composite cycle amplitude. The process of cycle projection.

SYCHRONOCITY - To occur simultaneously in time. In cyclic terms it refers to the tendency of the troughs of one component wave to occur at the same time as the troughs of other component waves in the same composite cycle.

PROPORTIONALITY - A relationship between two quantities such that as one increases the other also increases. In cyclic terms it relates to the amplitude and period of various waves in a cyclic model.

CYCLETREND INC.

P.O.BOX 1177

Glennville, Ga. 30427

Published once a month with E-Mail updates to make 17-20 issues per year. 704-301-5259. $330 / year $180 / 6 months. No trial subscriptions.