A Forecast of future market Psychology

Cycletrend - A stock market Timing service devoted to the study of Cycles.

Cycletrend has studied all cycles from the 60 year K-wave down to three week trading cycles and provided market direction and potential turning points to institutions since 1971. During this time the founder and author, Jim Tillman, has been quoted in U. S. A. Today, The Wall Street Transcript, Financial Magazines, The Cycles Foundation and Regional newspapers about the long and short term market outlook. He has also appeared on the original Financial News Network (FNN) and given speeches at professional seminars such as Computrac and the MTA (Market Technicians Association).

Jim Tillman became intrigued with charts and technical analysis in collage at Clemson A&M and went to work as a broker for Courts & co. in Atlanta Ga. in the early '60s just in time for the "U.S.Steel price freeze" bear market of 1961-62. To learn more about the markets he began to study old masters such as H.M.Gartley for relative strength and group analysis, Joe Granville's On Balance Volume, R.N. Elliott for patterns, moving average methods of Curtiss Dahl and finally cycles for anticipation of turns and timing. It began to pull all these methods together when J.M. Hurst wrote "The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing" about cycles. This brought in the element of time and explained how patterns could evolve from the combination of cycles. It explained how sentiment could be so bullish at tops and bearish at lows and how momentum oscillators are "reading" cycle momentum. It explained how Centered moving averages are actually tracking the cycles allowing price objectives to be determined and have repeating cycles that are recognized as Elliott Wave patterns. Almost all technical indicator roots can be traced to cycles which is why CYCLETREND devotes almost all their analysis to methods that monitor cycles.

One of the things that Cycletrend does that is unique is to project the cycles into the future to give a roadmap of possible direction and pattern the major market averages may take. Either these suggest a pattern from the past that may be repeated or it can create an entire new pattern not seen before. One example was after the crash of 1987 when the cycle pattern suggested a new high not a continuation of the bear market as in 1929 that everyone was focused on.

In Cycletrend's long history, some of the most memorable forecast include:
1) "THE BEAR IS GONE" headline in October, 1974 (the very start of this bull market).
2) Began writing in 1977 about the K-Wave Bull market of the 1980s' would begin between 1981 and 1983.
3) Forecast a major bull market in Bonds in early 1982 possibly lasting 17 years.
4) Went bullish the Stock market (again) October 19, 1987. In FNN interview (Mar 1988) predicted new highs still ahead into 1989-90.
5) #1 Performance of 900 lines from 9/28/89 to 7/08/90 as monitored by The Blue Ribbon Monitor
6) June 1990 - with the DJIA at 3000, on the Ira Epstein TV show in Chicago predicted possible DJI 2200 level in the next six months (low 2353 by October 10, 1990).
Here is the record according to Timer Digest.
TIMER DIGEST rankings:
1990 - #3 Bond timer, # 2 for two years, in top 10 stock market timers.
1991 - Ranked in top 5 Bond timers thru May.
1992 - Ranked in top 10 for stock market 3 and 6 month periods.
1993 - Ranked in top 5 for stock market (3/18-6/18)
1994 - Ranked in top 5 as Gold timer for year, # 4 gold timer for 2 years.
1995 - Thru April - in top 5 gold timers for 1 year, in top 5 stock market timers (10/94- 1/09/95)
1996 - Ranked #2 of bond timers in Timer Digest thru July 15.
1997 - Received award from Market Technicians Association for achievements in Cycle/Wave analysis.
Ranked #2 Bond timer for the last two years, #4 Gold Timer for the last 4 years.
1998 In top 10 Bond and Gold Timers for first six months #2 Bond timer for the year.
1999 #2 Gold timer first six months in top 10 market timers for three and six months.
2000 #2 Gold timer and on cover of August 28 issue.
2001 Listed in top 10 of long term market timers, top 10 for one year, top 10 for six months, #3 Gold timers
(May/June).
2002 January Annual Report for 2001 Ranked #2 Gold timers for 10 years, #4 For five years, #2 for three years, #2 for one year. Ranked in top 10 market timers for three years, two years, one year.
2002 Six months - Ranked #2 market timers, in top five bond timers. - Included in book 'TECHNICALLY
SPEAKING' by Chris Wilkinson of 16 top analyst.
2003 #1 Equity Timer as of August - listed as #5 Gold Timer for 10 years in January 2004 annual review.
2004 As of July, listed #2 Timer for three months, #4 Timer for six months.

Published once a month with E-mail updates to make 17-20 issues per year. $330 / year - $180 / 6 months. No trial subscriptions.

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